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Republicans may end up not re-entering the five congressional seats they need to control the House, at least not on paper.

Instead, national Republicans ended up with nine new seats, according to a 50-state analysis that matched Republican gains in places like Texas and Florida with Democrats’ gains in blue states, while Based on the 2020 president’s performance, they have 8 current Democratic seats. A new map of Congress created by CNN’s politics and data teams. It has up-to-date new Congressional maps for each state.

The bigger story may not be seat gains for one party or the other, but a loss of 17 contested seats, part of a decades-long trend of voter polarization and parties consolidating power.

As it stands, only 34 of the 435 seats (less than 10 percent) are competitive zones, down 17 from the last time the map was used in 2020.

For the purposes of CNN’s analysis (applying 2020 election results to new constituencies), “competitive” refers to President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump winning by 5 percentage points or less in 2020 constituency.

The competitive landscape in the 34 constituencies in the CNN analysis is enough to shake control of the 435 House members, and a wave in either direction could even bring into play constituencies that were not competitive in previous elections.

Republicans in Texas gained 10 Republican-leaning seats, according to a CNN analysis.

But Texas has 10 fewer contested seats.

Democrats there won two seats.

In Florida, Republicans hijacked the process from a more nonpartisan system urged by voters, adding three Republican-leaning seats and losing two Democratic-leaning seats.

Democrats gained capital in Illinois, where there are 3 new Democratic-leaning seats, 1 less Republican-leaning seat, and zero contested districts.

The same goes for states like Georgia, Missouri and Nebraska.

Princeton University professor Samuel Wang, who directs the Princeton Constituency Project, considered multiple recent elections in his analysis, not just the 2020 Biden-Trump data. He also noted that contested seats have declined between 2020 and 2022, but have increased since 2012, which he sees as a “banner year for gerrymandering” for Republicans, even as their dominance gradually fades across the country disappear.

“A big reason is the improvement in the redistricting process,” Wang told me, noting that independent commissions and neutral mapping processes have taken over in key states, as well as what his organization believes are better congressional maps in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and others, Virginia, North Carolina and New York.

Professional handicapers use a variety of factors to determine which races may actually be in the race.

website internal elections 54 regions were identified as battlefields, of which only 11 belonged to the tossup category.

“There may be fewer swing zones, but that doesn’t mean less competitive play,” CNN analyst Nathan Gonzales told me in an email.

another organization, Sabato’s crystal ball Research from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics found an increase in the number of very safe Republican districts where Biden gets 40% or less of the vote in 2020.

There are slightly fewer districts that are very safe for Democrats, and more districts won by Biden by 2 to 7 percentage points. That suggests Democrats will be more defensive in the new map than Republicans, possibly even in games that aren’t on the contending list.

Contested seats have been dwindling, and contested seats can be plentiful.

“Which regions are actually ‘competitive’ change from cycle to cycle,” Kyle Kondik, executive editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told me in an email. “For example, there could be a couple of double-digit Biden seats this year, and Republicans have a good chance of flipping those eventually, especially with headwinds in the fall (and we’ll see if that happens). ”

He also made an important point that what appears to be a safe area for a Republican or Democrat today may look very different in an election or two.

Condick: In the 2010s, many of the districts drawn to be safe Republicans in places like Georgia and Texas became more competitive in the 2010s as Donald Trump drove away many traditional suburban Republican voters . Likewise, Trump has made several typical Democratic districts in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania more competitive after rising to the top of the GOP and shaking up many Barack Obama voters. Voter coalitions change over time, and in unpredictable ways.

Based on the 2020 results, Kondik argued, the new House district that most resembles the entire nation is in Kansas, where voters this week supported abortion rights. Specifically, he pointed to the only Kansas district controlled by Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. Republicans who control the state’s redistricting district make her newly redistricted district more competitive.

Professor Alan Abramowitz, Emory University already written The overall polarization may not be what many people imagine. Despite fewer party-designed contested constituencies, control of Congress has changed hands more frequently—three times since 2002, and a fourth likely in November, and a fourth from 1972 to 2000. Only once a year. One reason: Incumbents have less power. Even in areas with moderate competition, churn rates are much higher.

Suddenly, as control of Capitol Hill looms in November, Democrats may have reason to be optimistic about what will remain an extremely difficult political environment.

  • In the Senate, they’re on the verge of delivering on climate and health care legislation pledges that were shelved earlier this year.
  • They worked with Republicans to create bipartisan gun legislation and support the semiconductor industry.
  • Among states, Kansas’ support for abortion rights suggests the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade’s decision could be a powerful electoral issue.
  • The stronger-than-expected jobs data suggested that Americans looking for work could.

But in all of these cases, persistent inflation has made life more expensive for Americans and helped generate deep pessimism about the economy, which has helped keep Biden’s job approval rating at or below 40%, which is a persuasive indicator as more and more districts become more staunchly partisan.

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