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On June 18, the price of Bitcoin on Binance fell to a low of $17,622, and since then, the community has been debating in depth if that was the low.

According to an analyst at cryptocurrency resource CryptoQuant – the bottom may not be there yet, but we are about 1/3 of the way through.

  • Tomáš Hančar – Analyst CryptoQuant – disclose The LTH SOPR 20-day SMA indicates that we are “1/3 of the way into a potential bottom.”
  • The indicator above is a short of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spend Output Profit Ratio (LTH SOPR).
  • The ratio has spent about three months at the neutral level of “one,” according to the data, which, according to analysts, is 1/3 what it usually takes for a bottoming process.

I have roughly measured the historical bottoming process/cyclical accumulation and on average (including less than two months into March 2022) we should be looking at a bottoming process of around 250 days.

  • Analysts go further, involving the indicator’s 20-day moving average “smoothing” line.

In terms of technically the indicator’s 20-day EMA smoothing line, we have seen a rebound from the 2020 actual LTH SOPR low between July 10 and 14, coincidentally, not far from the 0.49 level, which represents The lowest point of the 2015 and 2018/2019 cyclical bottoms.

img1_btc-lthsoprchart
Source: CryptoQuant
  • In conclusion, he thinks it’s time to start scaling up, but be cautious “in case we have another chance to buy below 20k.”
  • It’s been about 47 days since the recent low, so he thinks it’s best to make sure that potential breakout scenarios are also covered.
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