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Bitcoin (BTC) rallied overnight to Aug. 5 as a new trendline recovery opened the door for further gains.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Daily BTC price chart sets ‘tentative’ bull signal

From Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Transaction view Shows BTC/USD rebounding from the local bottom to $22,400, up about 4.6%.

The pair reversed direction at key bid support on major exchange Binance, which helped avoid bigger losses at the 200-week moving average (MA) around $22,800.

While this key area remains uncertain for the bulls, the recovery of the 21-period moving average on the daily chart gives on-chain analytical resource Material Indicators reason for optimism.

BTC/USD may not signal long at the daily candle close, it told Twitter followers overnight.

Still, traders and analyst Rekt Capital expressed continued caution over Bitcoin’s poor track record of turning the 200-week moving average into solid support in a bear market.

“Historically, BTC has been able to generate significant buy-side interest at the 200-week MA,” he said. debate.

“But if $BTC fails to retest the MA in the near term, that could further prove that this recovery is just a relief.”

BTC/USD 1-Week Candlestick with 200-Week MA (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The price outlook was similarly conservative for trading firm QCP Capital, which in its latest market update sent Telegram channel subscribers the overall picture “very mixed.”

Pointing to complex macro triggers, the QCP said the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will be the deciding factor for the market going forward. It noted that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has yet to agree on the pace and scope of key future rate hikes.

“Global economic data points to sluggish growth and an imminent global recession,” the update read, highlighting consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for July due on Aug. 10.

“We continue to think the market will trade sideways and be sensitive to economic data releases. Next Wednesday’s U.S. CPI will be the next important indicator to watch.”

The strength of Ethereum cannot convince

On altcoins, ether (ETH) and other large-cap coins joined Bitcoin’s relief push higher.

Related: 3 Key Ether Derivatives Metrics Show ETH Support Lacks Strength at $1,600

At the time of writing, ETH/USD hovered at $1,665, but after the second retest, ETH/BTC failed to break above resistance near the 0.075 mark.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle (Binance). Source: TradingView

With the ethereum merger in about a month, concerns have grown about the possibility of a contentious hard fork of the network.

“The more immediate and immediate risk in the crypto market is the planned ETH merger in September,” the QCP continued.

It added that the market has “began to price in the possibility of a substantial hard fork.”

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Every investment and trading move involves risk and you should do your own research when making a decision.