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Democrats were buoyed by their pro-choice victory in the Kansas abortion referendum on Tuesday, but in November there were only a handful of House seats up for grabs in abortion-voting states.

Voters in Kansas on Tuesday overwhelmingly chose not to amend the state constitution to make it clear that there is no right to abortion, dealing a blow to the pro-life movement. Some forecasters saw the result as a sign of Democratic momentum in the 2022 midterm elections, but only five other states plan to hold an abortion referendum in November, and few of them are contested.

Americans will head to the polls to decide their future of abortion in California, Vermont, Montana, Kentucky and possibly Michigan. None of these states will have a competitive Senate race, with only three House seats currently held by Democrats classified as “swinging” cook political report.

Months of polls have suggested that Republicans are all but guaranteed to win back the House and have a good chance of retaking the Senate, thereby blocking Biden’s legislative agenda for the remaining two years of the president’s first term. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, some Democrats saw the Kansas outcome as a potential sign of a changing wind.

Robert Reich tweet “Kansas is the beginning,” and warned anti-abortion politicians in November. Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, Say Georgians must show up in November to save abortion after “Kansas showed us what’s possible.”Reuters published a Arguing that Kansas provided the party with an “abortion manual” by November.

But those numbers simply don’t exist, barring a shocking polling error in favor of Democrats.five thirty-eight current project Republicans will win a 27-seat majority, while Democrats have fallen from 220 currently to just 204. In states that vote for abortion, there are hardly enough contested seats to make up the difference. (Related: ‘We’re here to obey the law’: Reporter confronts Jean-Pierre over Biden’s executive order surrounding abortion)

Even expanding the racial classification from “toss” to “leaning” Republicans or Democrats won’t do it. By that measure, Democrats are still defending only seven seats in abortion referendum states — four in California and three in Michigan.

Democrats claim ‘abortion is on the ballot’ in November — it’s become a common thread for House Speakers Nancy Pelosi Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy. In reality, this only works for a small percentage of American voters and isn’t enough to save the Democratic majority in the midterms.

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