The latest crypto market research from Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that Bitcoin may start to behave more like U.S. (U.S.) Treasury bonds and gold than stocks.
In its August cryptocurrency outlook ReportWritten by Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone and Senior Market Structural Analyst Jamie Coutts, the research unit compares the Bitcoin market to the gold, bond and oil markets.
The authors argue that macroeconomic influences such as Federal Reserve monetary policy lead to similarities between the Treasury market and Bitcoin:
“Tightening markets and slumping global growth support the Fed’s shift to a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ bias in July, which could help tilt Bitcoin toward more Treasuries than equities.”
They also added that the “pump-on nature of the sell-off in commodities” and the fall in bond yields suggest an increased likelihood of a boost for bonds, gold and bitcoin as inflation falls.
Is the flush done?boom, bust and #bitcoin Compared #gold, #bond, #Oil —Whether the ebb for most assets has subsided is the primary binary question in 2H, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seemingly poised to lead the way in most cases. Link to PDF:https://t.co/iFSCZIULHe
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) August 3, 2022
Treasury bonds, commonly known as T-Bonds, are long-term government debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. They have fixed rates of return and maturities ranging from 20 to 30 years.
The report noted that the crypto market reached its largest ever discount compared to the 100-week moving average in July. It added that “it is not normal for Bitcoin to trade well below its 200-week moving average.” BTC is currently up 1.2% on the day at $23,1502, having just reclaimed its 200-week moving average at $22,827.
The fact that BTC is 70% below its early-August peak, but still five times above its March 2020 low, “shows its potential,” the analyst said.
They marked the $20,000 area as a key support level, and they expect to be building a base similar to the $5,000 level in 2018-19.
related: Bitcoin bulls aim for $25,000 by Friday’s $510 million option expiration
The researchers concluded that Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing assets since its inception about a decade ago, adding:
“We think there will be more of the same going forward, especially since it may be transitioning to global collateral, with outcomes more consistent with Treasuries or gold.”
Research conducted by Coinbase in July showed that the risk profile of the crypto asset class is similar to that of oil and tech stocks. According to Coinbase chief economist Cesare Fracassi, since the 2020 pandemic, “the correlation between stock and crypto asset prices has risen significantly.”